Adobe Flash or Javascript jQuery with HTML5? Which one is more popular?

A lot of debates (dvice, digital trends, tfts) have taken place over the announcement made by Steve Jobs that Flash sucks (I’m paraphrasing, but really, that’s what he said). As always, on one side (HTML5/jQuery) we have the “open” systems camp raising issues like usability, eye-candy is useless, etc. On the other side (Flash) we have the “closed” systems camp arguing that HTML5 and jQuery cannot do what Flash can. To some extent, both sides are right, and wrong. But what does the actual data show about trends in using these technologies? Looking at the results, some things are confirmed, others become obvious, and new questions surface.

Adobe Flash, jQuery, WordPress, PHP, or ActionScript?

I started off with the idea, and assumption, that Flash and jQuery are direct competitors as a deployment platform. Although jQuery is only a framework, it has so far proven to be in direct competition with Flash in terms of its ability to reproduce most things built in Flash. Considering all the jQuery buzz that has been going around for a while now, I also assumed that it would be rapidly rising higher, while Flash would either be stagnating or having a downward trend. As it turns out (see screenshot above), jQuery is experiencing a slow and steady rise, while Flash has had a temporary slowdown, and is currently sitting at same levels as in first half of 2009. But overall, Flash appears to be trending upwards at a higher rate than jQuery.

This was an unexpected find, considering what we’ve all been hearing lately. It seems that the Flash platform is growing. Could it be that Steve Jobs got it wrong? Let’s dig deeper and find out.
(For scale comparison, I added WordPress, PHP, and ActionScript. Surprised to see WordPress at a level lower than Flash. Baffled as to why PHP is having such a downward trend for years now).

ActionScript vs jQuery

Realizing that a comparison of Flash vs jQuery is unfair – one is a platform, the other one a framework, I decided to compare ActionScript to jQuery. Although still not technically a perfect comparison, I do believe it provides a better insight into where developers are going.

Looking at the diagram, it becomes obvious: ActionScript in decline since mid-2008, while jQuery has been growing at a rapid rate for over two years. For scale reference, AJAX is trending downward, and has been overtaken by jQuery since mid-2009.

Considering the earlier diagram, two conclusions can be drawn so far:

1. Flash, as a platform, is growing at the moment. This is probably driven by a user-base, rather than production base. There is a lot of Flash content out there that is driving the demand for the Flash Player. In fact, most of the searches in the previous diagram were related to the Flash Player.
2. ActionScript is on the decline, as developers are losing interest in the language and moving towards jQuery, iPhone, and HTML, along with everyone else.

The slight downward trend that ActionScript is experiencing could also be due to a lower uptake of the language by new developers. Looking at the PHP trend, it does not necessarily show that PHP is a dying language. It could mean that the uptake is lower and that there are enough competent and experienced developers who don’t need to search for references and tutorials online anymore.

As an interesting sidenote, I ran a search on PHP, Java, HTML, Ruby on Rails and MySQL and all of them appear to be trending downward. I would really like to understand why this is – can anyone offer a theory?

ActionScript 2 vs ActionScript 3

AS2 and AS3 being overshadowed by the much more popular technologies in the previous comparison, makes it difficult to really see what it going on, on a much deeper level. Looking at the data, it looks like the interest in AS3 is past its peak. By now developers are mostly at an expert level, or have given up on it altogether. AS2 is keeping ground, for mysterious reasons – holding on to what we know perhaps?

iPhone developer vs Flash developer

If you’re asking yourself should you should stick to Flash, or move to iPhone development – just look at the graph. The iPhone developer term is so massively popular, it is headed for the web designer. Obviously over-hyped, driven by a lot of curiosity at the moment, iPhone development will level off. In the same way that web designer has. But it is very clear that it is more popular than flash developer and flash designer, although interesting to note that flash designer is still doing well, although at a consistently declining rate for the last 4 years.

Overall conclusions?

If we’re to judge on popularity alone, it can easily be concluded that developers should be taking the time and effort to up skill in iPhone development. Supplementary to that, a good working knowledge of JavaScript, AJAX, and jQuery for front-end development seems to be the way to go.

Looks like Steve Jobs’ announcement on Flash was what many people were thinking, but didn’t dare to say. Now that it’s out in the open, it is creating a lot of uncertainty and defensiveness from the Flash camp – which is to be expected. The HTML camp on the other hand is moving in strong, using the announcement as a weapon and reason for attack. The truth is, as always, in the middle. However, jQuery and HTML5 are clearly closing the gap in rich interactivity between them and Flash, and unless Flash introduces radical new ways of interactivity (or production benefits) that HTML is unable to even get close to, it will become more and more difficult to justify its widespread use.

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